Volatility Surging as Bitcoin Climbs to $475 on Spot before Massive 20% Correction

Daily volatility (as calculated by BitMEX's BVOL24H index) surged to almost 10 in trading this weekend, which is a multi-week high. However, if we zoom out it starts to look not as impressive, as the move up is not nearly as high as the FOMO to $500 in early November:

This was due to a large move up that was fully corrected in a matter of hours:

So it's it's essentially a full retrace of that whole move up, which disappeared in a single 1-hour candle. Very impressive action here in bitcoin.

To get an idea of sentiment let's look at the Forward Curves in our new Futures Contract Spreads (courtesy of contributor Austerity_Sucks):

So OKCoin looks pretty neutral in sentiment, almost 1% in the weekly spread, 5% on the fresh new quarterly contracts released which are set to expire in end of March 2016.

Let's look at BitMEX forward curve now too:

Healthy premiums across the board at BitMEX too, I would even say it's pretty bullish sentiment going into end of the weekend tomorrow. 

Let's look at the bigger trend right now by taking a look at the 12-hour chart from Huobi:

In the bigger picture this is either a failed test of the 3300 CNY / $500 which has been badly rejected, or if you're more bullish, it's the first leg on a bigger move up where we can smash through $500.

One thing is sure though: the trend is still up, and sentiment is far from bearish, so there's plenty room to move in the right direction as volatility really starts to pick up steam.